IMF Warns Soaring Oil Prices Could Trigger Global Recession

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2026-05-14 03:13:01

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The International Monetary Fund has issued a stark warning: sustained oil prices above $120 per barrel may plunge the global economy into recession by 2027. Crude has surged 45% in three months amid geopolitical tensions, with Brent currently trading at $106.84.

Supply disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict have choked the vital Strait of Hormuz—a conduit for 20% of global oil shipments. April saw production drop 1.8 million barrels daily, totaling 12.8 million barrels lost since hostilities began in February.

Market pressures intensify as the International Energy Agency reports record inventory drawdowns. "Depleting stockpiles could drive prices higher this summer," analysts note, with the IMF's worst-case scenario projecting even steeper climbs.

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